I think there is a lot of value in Texas State right now they are coming into this game with a lot of momentum after beating Seattle as a +3 yesterday. Texas State lost at Denver by 11 and 15 at home so this spread is right inside those numbers. Denver in both games shot better than their season averages while Texas State shot below their season averages. I expect those numbers to revert back to the mean here today. Ironically when both of these teams are on the road Texas State played the better defense FG% wise and in my opinion Denver is to reliant on the three ball where they are shooting nearly 50% of their shots. That's part of the reason they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral court games. I expect this to be a close game with a playoff like atmosphere and for Texas State to carry their momentum into the game.
Washington covered by just a half point in our free play yesterday, but I'm backing them yet again. They lost to Oregon twice this season, but Oregon has seemed to fallen off quite a bit of late. These are two similar teams in terms of strategy and Washington just plays better in these type of situations as they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. a team with a win % > .600. Oregon just 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 overall and are allowing 54.7% from 2 point range over their last 3 games. That is where Washington will take 75% of their shots.
